Effects of the information-driven awareness on epidemic spreading on multiplex networks.

In this study, we examine the impact of information-driven awareness on the spread of an epidemic from the perspective of resource allocation by comprehensively considering a series of realistic scenarios. A coupled awareness-resource-epidemic model on top of multiplex networks is proposed, and a Microscopic Markov Chain Approach is adopted to study the complex interplay among the processes. Through theoretical analysis, the infection density of the epidemic is predicted precisely, and an approximate epidemic threshold is derived. Combining both numerical calculations and extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the following conclusions are obtained. First, during a pandemic, the more active the resource support between individuals, the more effectively the disease can be controlled; that is, there is a smaller infection density and a larger epidemic threshold. Second, the disease can be better suppressed when individuals with small degrees are preferentially protected. In addition, there is a critical parameter of contact preference at which the effectiveness of disease control is the worst. Third, the inter-layer degree correlation has a "double-edged sword" effect on spreading dynamics. In other words, when there is a relatively lower infection rate, the epidemic threshold can be raised by increasing the positive correlation. By contrast, the infection density can be reduced by increasing the negative correlation. Finally, the infection density decreases when raising the relative weight of the global information, which indicates that global information about the epidemic state is more efficient for disease control than local information.

Influence of broader geographic allograft sharing on outcomes and cost in smaller lung transplant centers.

OBJECTIVE: On November 24, 2017, Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network implemented a change to lung allocation replacing donor service area with a 250 nautical mile radius around donor hospitals. We sought to evaluate the experience of a small to medium size center following implementation. METHODS: Patients (47 pre and 54 post) undergoing lung transplantation were identified from institutional database from January 2016 to October 2019. Detailed chart review and analysis of institutional cost data was performed. Univariate analysis was performed to compare eras. RESULTS: Similar short-term mortality and primary graft dysfunction were observed between groups. Decreased local donation (68% vs 6%; P < .001), increased travel distance (145 vs 235 miles; P = .004), travel cost ($8626 vs $14,482; P < .001), and total procurement cost ($60,852 vs $69,052; P = .001) were observed postimplementation. We also document an increase in waitlist mortality postimplementation (6.9 vs 31.6 per 100 patient-years; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Following implementation of the new allocation policy in a small to medium size center, several changes were in accordance with policy intention. However, concerning shifts emerged, including increased waitlist mortality and resource utilization. Continued close monitoring of transplant centers stratified by size and location are paramount to maintaining global availability of lung transplantation to all Americans regardless of geographic residence or socioeconomic status.

[Update 2021: Coronavirus pandemic - challenges for geriatrics]. / Update 2021: Corona-Pandemie ­ Herausforderungen für die Geriatrie.

Nobody supposed that after one year of the pandemia, the SARS-CoV-2 Virus and its emerging mutants dominates the press, our lives and the health system as a whole. As for Geriatric Medicine, many things have also changed: The majority of COVID-19 patients are no more the (oldest) old and mortality is less observed in multimorbid persons, as most of them have been vaccinated. (Oldest) old persons are still especially vulnerable to die due to a COVD-19 infection. In longterm care, a significant higher mortality was seen in the former waves, but now, some longterm care facilities have more places that they can fill. This is a situation that many European countries would never have anticipated.Ressource allocationin stormy times is now more openly discussed, especially who should be admitted to intensive care units. This has led to more detailed and new guidelines which may help even when the pandemia is over. Here, some thoughts regarding the care of older adults in times of the pandemia are discussed.

Intergenerational resource sharing and mortality in a global perspective.

Resource sharing has always been a central component of human sociality. Children require heavy investments in human capital; during working years, help is needed due to illness, disability, or bad luck. While hunter-gatherer elders assisted their descendants, more recently, elderly withdraw from work and require assistance as well. Willingness to share has been critically important for our past evolutionary success and our present daily lives. Here, we document a strong linear relationship between the public and private sharing generosity of a society and the average length of life of its members. Our findings from 34 countries on six continents suggest that survival is higher in societies that provide more support and care for one another. We suggest that this support reduces mortality by meeting urgent material needs, but also that sharing generosity may reflect the strength of social connectedness, which itself benefits human health and wellbeing and indirectly raises survival.

Paying the Price for PPE.

The early days of the COVID-19 pandemic threw the market for personal protective equipment (PPE) into chaos. So physicians and county medical societies across Texas found they had to go big or go home when it came to obtaining those critical supplies.

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China. METHODS: The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area. RESULTS: The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR. CONCLUSION: The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

Attitudes, knowledge, and preferences of the Israeli public regarding the allocation of donor organs for transplantation.

BACKGROUND: There is a stark disparity between the number of patients awaiting deceased-donor organ transplants and the rate at which organs become available. Though organs for transplantation are assumed to be a community resource, and the organ supply depends on public willingness to donate, current allocation schemes do not explicitly incorporate public priorities and preferences. This paper seeks to provide insights regarding the Israeli public's preferences regarding criteria for organ (specifically, kidney) allocation, and to determine whether these preferences are in line with current allocation policies. METHODS: A market research company administered a telephone survey to 604 adult participants representing the Jewish-Israeli public (age range: 18-95; 50% male). The questionnaire comprised 39 questions addressing participants' knowledge, attitudes, and preferences regarding organ donation and criteria for organ allocation, including willingness to donate. RESULTS: The criteria that respondents marked as most important in prioritizing waitlist candidates were maximum medical benefit (51.3% of respondents) and waiting time (21%). Donor status (i.e., whether the candidate is registered as an organ donor) was ranked by 43% as the least significant criterion. Most participants expressed willingness to donate the organs of a deceased relative; notably, they indicated that they would be significantly more willing to donate if organ allocation policies took their preferences regarding allocation criteria into account. Unlike individuals in other countries (e.g., the UK, the US, and Australia) who responded to similar surveys, Israeli survey respondents did not assign high importance to the candidate's age (24% ranked it as the least important factor). Interestingly, in some cases, participants' declared preferences regarding the importance of various allocation criteria diverged from their actual choices in hypothetical organ allocation scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this survey indicate that Israel's citizens are willing to take part in decisions about organ allocation. Respondents did not seem to have a strict definition or concept of what they deem to be just; yet, in general, their preferences are compatible with current policy. Importantly, participants noted that they would be more willing to donate organs if their preferences were integrated into the allocation policy. Accordingly, we propose that allocation systems must strive to respect community values and perceptions while maintaining continued clinical effectiveness.

A Practical Approach to the Management of Cancer Patients During the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: An International Collaborative Group.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread globally since being identified as a public health emergency of major international concern and has now been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). In December 2019, an outbreak of atypical pneumonia, known as COVID-19, was identified in Wuhan, China. The newly identified zoonotic coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is characterized by rapid human-to-human transmission. Many cancer patients frequently visit the hospital for treatment and disease surveillance. They may be immunocompromised due to the underlying malignancy or anticancer therapy and are at higher risk of developing infections. Several factors increase the risk of infection, and cancer patients commonly have multiple risk factors. Cancer patients appear to have an estimated twofold increased risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 than the general population. With the WHO declaring the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, there is an urgent need to address the impact of such a pandemic on cancer patients. This include changes to resource allocation, clinical care, and the consent process during a pandemic. Currently and due to limited data, there are no international guidelines to address the management of cancer patients in any infectious pandemic. In this review, the potential challenges associated with managing cancer patients during the COVID-19 infection pandemic will be addressed, with suggestions of some practical approaches. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The main management strategies for treating cancer patients during the COVID-19 epidemic include clear communication and education about hand hygiene, infection control measures, high-risk exposure, and the signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Consideration of risk and benefit for active intervention in the cancer population must be individualized. Postponing elective surgery or adjuvant chemotherapy for cancer patients with low risk of progression should be considered on a case-by-case basis. Minimizing outpatient visits can help to mitigate exposure and possible further transmission. Telemedicine may be used to support patients to minimize number of visits and risk of exposure. More research is needed to better understand SARS-CoV-2 virology and epidemiology.

Allocation of Scarce Resources in a Pandemic: A Systematic Review of US State Crisis Standards of Care Documents.

The aim of this systematic review was to locate and analyze United States state crisis standards of care (CSC) documents to determine their prevalence and quality. Following PRISMA guidelines, Google search for "allocation of scarce resources" and "crisis standards of care (CSC)" for each state. We analyzed the plans based on the 2009 Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, which provided guidance for establishing CSC for use in disaster situations, as well as the 2014 CHEST consensus statement's 11 core topic areas. The search yielded 42 state documents, and we excluded 11 that were not CSC plans. Of the 31 included plans, 13 plans were written for an "all hazards" approach, while 18 were pandemic influenza specific. Eighteen had strong ethical grounding. Twenty-one plans had integrated and ongoing community and provider engagement, education, and communication. Twenty-two had assurances regarding legal authority and environment. Sixteen plans had clear indicators, triggers, and lines of responsibility. Finally, 28 had evidence-based clinical processes and operations. Five plans contained all 5 IOM elements: Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, and Vermont. Colorado and Minnesota have all hazards documents and processes for both adult and pediatric populations and could be considered exemplars for other states.

Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resource utilization.

Background: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has severely affected the United States. During infectious disease outbreaks, forecasting models are often developed to inform resource utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that most American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting. Objective: This study aimed to forecast the first pandemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the general population and the incidence of severe, critical, and fatal coronavirus disease 2019 cases during delivery hospitalization in the United States. Study Design: We used a phenomenological model to forecast the incidence of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the United States. Incidence data from March 1, 2020, to April 14, 2020, were used to calibrate the generalized logistic growth model. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for each week from March 1, 2020, to estimate the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 for delivery hospitalizations during the first pandemic wave using the available data estimate. Results: From March 1, 2020, our model forecasted a total of 860,475 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in the general population across the United States for the first pandemic wave. The cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 during delivery hospitalization is anticipated to be 16,601 (95% confidence interval, 9711-23,491) cases, 3308 (95% confidence interval, 1755-4861) cases of which are expected to be severe, 681 (95% confidence interval, 1324-1038) critical, and 52 (95% confidence interval, 23-81) fatal. Assuming similar baseline maternal mortality rate as the year 2018, we projected an increase in maternal mortality rate in the United States to at least 18.7 (95% confidence interval, 18.0-19.5) deaths per 100,000 live births as a direct result of coronavirus disease 2019. Conclusion: Coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnant women is expected to severely affect obstetrical care. From March 1, 2020, we forecast 3308 severe and 681 critical cases with about 52 coronavirus disease 2019-related maternal mortalities during delivery hospitalization for the first pandemic wave in the United States. These results are significant for informing counseling and resource allocation.

Facilitators and barriers to the self-management of COPD: a qualitative study from rural Nepal.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the facilitators and barriers to the self-management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in rural Nepal. SETTINGS: Community and primary care centres in rural Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 14 participants (10 people with COPD and 4 health care providers) were interviewed. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: People with COPD and healthcare provider's experience of COPD self-management in rural Nepal. RESULTS: Facilitators and barriers affecting COPD self-management in Nepal operated at the patient-family, community and service provider levels. People with COPD were found to have a limited understanding of COPD and medications. Some participants reported receiving inadequate family support and described poor emotional health. At the community level, widespread use of complementary and alternative treatment was found to be driven by social networks and was used instead of western medicine. There were limited quality controls in place to monitor the safe use of alternative treatment. While a number of service level factors were identified by all participants, the pertinent concerns were the levels of trust and respect between doctors and their patients. Service level factors included patients' demands for doctor time and attention, limited confidence of people with COPD in communicating confidently and openly with their doctor, limited skills and expertise of the doctors in promoting behavioural change, frustration with doctors prescribing too many medicines and the length of time to diagnose the disease. These service level factors were underpinned by resource constraints operating in rural areas. These included inadequate infrastructure and resources, limited skills of primary level providers and lack of educational materials for COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest the need for a more integrated model of care with multiple strategies targeting all three levels in order to improve the self-management practices among people with COPD.

The gap between macroeconomic and microeconomic health resources allocation decisions: The case of nurses.

The allocation of healthcare resources takes place at two distinct levels. At the macroeconomic level, policymakers decide on budgets, staffing, cost-effectiveness thresholds, clinical guidelines and insurance payments; at the microeconomic level, healthcare professionals decide on whom to treat, what the appropriate treatment is, how much time and effort should each patient receive and how urgent the need for care is. At both levels, there is a constant social need for just allocation. Policymakers are mostly guided by abstract principles of justice, thinking in terms of groups of patients, epidemiological data, impersonal statistics and economic costs. On the other hand, healthcare professionals understand the need for justice at a more personal level, as they interact with patients and, in a sense, put theory into practice. Nurses hold a unique position in healthcare systems, as, traditionally, they are closer to patients than other health professionals. This means that they have a firsthand view of the effect that their decisions have on specific patients and, therefore, nurses tend to get more influenced by their personal feelings, values and beliefs at the microeconomic level. This presentation shall examine the gap between abstract macroeconomic and concrete microeconomic health resources allocation decisions, with a particular emphasis on the role of the nurse.

Redistributing medical resources for a bypass strategy for large vessel occlusion: a community-based study.

BACKGROUND: A bypass strategy for large vessel occlusion (LVO) benefits patients receiving endovascular thrombectomy (EVT), but may delay some patients from receiving IV thrombolysis. However, patient centralization has been shown to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To understand the current coverage of medical services for patients with stroke, and to identify the best coverage under different medical resource redistribution to help balance medical equality and patient centralization. METHODS: This 6-year geographic study of 7679 on-scene patients with suspected stroke with a positive Cincinnati Prehospital Stroke Scale (CPSS) score identified 4037 patients with all three CPSS items who were suspected as having an LVO. Geographic, population, and patient coverage rates for hospitals providing IV thrombolysis and those providing EVT were identified according to hospital service areas, defined as geographic districts with access to a hospital within a ≤15 min off-peak driving time estimated using Google Maps. Moreover, we estimated the effects on resource redistribution when implementing a bypass strategy. RESULTS: Geographic coverage rates for hospitals providing IV thrombolysis and those providing EVT were 64.75% and 56.62%, respectively, and population coverage rates were 97.30% and 92.72%, respectively. The service areas of hospitals providing IV thrombolysis covered 93.77% of patients with suspected stroke, and those of hospitals providing EVT covered 87.89% of patients with suspected LVO. The number of hospitals providing IV thrombolysis and those providing EVT could be reduced to six and two hospitals, respectively, without affecting hospital arrival time when implementing a bypass strategy. CONCLUSION: Hospitals providing IV thrombolysis and EVT could be reduced without reducing medical equality.

Validating thoracic simulated allocation model predictions for impact of broader geographic sharing of donor lungs on transplant waitlist outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The thoracic simulated allocation model (TSAM) is used by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to predict the relative effect of organ allocation policy changes. A new lung allocation policy changing the first unit of allocation from donation service area to 250 nautical miles took effect on November 24, 2017. We studied TSAM's ability to correctly predict trends caused by changes in allocation policy. METHODS: We compared the population characteristics from the TSAM cohort, 6,386 lung transplant candidates from 2009 to 2011, with the observed cohort of 7,601 candidates from the year before the policy change on November 24, 2017, and the year after. Simulations were run 10 times. Waitlist mortality and transplant rates were calculated and compared with observed mortality and transplant rates in the years before and after the policy change. RESULTS: TSAM correctly predicted no change in overall waitlist mortality or transplant rates with the policy change. Observed waitlist mortality values were higher, as were transplant rates, because of increased organ donation and population change. TSAM predicted increased transplant rates for diagnosis group D (idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis), decreased rates for group A (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and increased rates for candidates with lung allocation score ≥50, but these changes did not occur in the waitlist and transplant populations after the policy change. CONCLUSIONS: TSAM correctly predicted the relative trends caused by a change in allocation policy but smaller sub-group predictions were not seen.